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Trial result explorer

Filter the pivotal semaglutide, tirzepatide, retatrutide, orforglipron and CagriSema trials by drug, indication, primary endpoint and duration, then see each arm's percent weight change as a bar with its confidence interval and the PubMed id underneath. Every number is read from the primary publication's abstract; nothing is modelled.

By FormBlends editorial teamAssumptions checked September 4, 2026Runs in your browser; nothing is sent to a server

Filter the trials

24 of 24 trials match.

SURMOUNT-1

Indication
Weight management
Randomised
2,539
Duration
72 weeks
Primary endpoint
Coprimary: percent change in body weight from baseline, and weight reduction of 5 percent or more, at week 72.
Result
Mean percent weight change at week 72: -15.0% (95% CI -15.9 to -14.2) with 5 mg, -19.5% (-20.4 to -18.5) with 10 mg, -20.9% (-21.8 to -19.9) with 15 mg, versus -3.1% (-4.3 to -1.9) with placebo; P<0.001 for all comparisons.
Estimand
treatment-regimen
-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%+5%Tirzepatide 5 mg-15.0%Tirzepatide 10 mg-19.5%Tirzepatide 15 mg-20.9%Placebo-3.1%
Mean percent change in body weight at 72 weeks. Grey = placebo. Thin line = 95% CI where the abstract gives one. PubMed 35658024.
ArmnWeight changeMinus placebo
Tirzepatide 5 mgn/s-15.0%95% CI -15.9 to -14.2-11.9 pts
Tirzepatide 10 mgn/s-19.5%95% CI -20.4 to -18.5-16.4 pts
Tirzepatide 15 mgn/s-20.9%95% CI -21.8 to -19.9-17.8 pts
Placebon/s-3.1%95% CI -4.3 to -1.9n/a

n/s = not stated in the abstract. Minus placebo is arithmetic on the arm means, not the paper's modelled treatment difference.

Source. N Engl J Med 2022;387(3):205-216. Published 2022-07-21 (online 2022-06-04). Funding: Eli Lilly. PubMed 35658024. Full digest: SURMOUNT-1.

Formulashown in full, nothing hidden
bar length      = arm mean percent change in body weight at the endpoint week (read from the abstract)
placebo-subtracted = arm mean minus placebo mean, rounded to 0.1 point
                  (arithmetic on the two published means; the paper's estimated treatment
                   difference comes from a model and may differ in the first decimal)
duration band   = under 52 weeks | 52 to 72 weeks | over 72 weeks, using the primary-endpoint week
                  (event-driven trials use the reported mean or median follow-up)

The explorer does no modelling. It filters a hand-built list of 24 trials and draws the numbers as stated in each abstract. Where an abstract does not give an arm-level weight change (SELECT, FLOW, SUSTAIN-6, PIONEER 6, SURPASS-2, SURMOUNT-OSA, and the monotherapy arms of REDEFINE 1 and STEP 2) the arm is listed with no bar rather than filled from a secondary source.

Assumptions, checked September 4, 2026

  • Every number was read from the PubMed abstract of the primary publication (NCBI E-utilities efetch, rettype=abstract), or, where the digest says so, from the PMC full text of the same paper.
  • Percent changes are means or least-squares means for the whole randomised arm, under the estimand named in the trial record. Different estimands (treatment-policy, treatment-regimen, efficacy) are not interchangeable; see the methods guide.
  • Withdrawal trials (STEP 4, SURMOUNT-4) and the lead-in trial SURMOUNT-3 measure change from randomisation, not from a drug-naive baseline. Their placebo bars point to the right because participants regained weight.
  • Bars from different trials sit on the same axis for reading convenience only. Populations, background lifestyle programmes, durations and estimands differ, so a longer bar in one trial is not evidence of superiority over another trial. Only head-to-head trials (SURMOUNT-5, STEP 8, SURPASS-2) compare drugs directly.
  • Compounded semaglutide and tirzepatide were not studied in any of these trials and are not FDA approved.

This calculator is an arithmetic aid for medication a licensed prescriber has already prescribed. It does not recommend a dose. Confirm any result with your prescriber or pharmacist before use.

Sources

  1. SURMOUNT-1. N Engl J Med 2022;387(3):205-216. PubMed 35658024
  2. SURMOUNT-2. Lancet 2023;402(10402):613-626. PubMed 37385275
  3. SURMOUNT-3. Nat Med 2023;29(11):2909-2918. PubMed 37840095
  4. SURMOUNT-4. JAMA 2024;331(1):38-48. PubMed 38078870
  5. SURMOUNT-5. N Engl J Med 2025;393(1):26-36. PubMed 40353578
  6. SURMOUNT-OSA. N Engl J Med 2024;391(13):1193-1205. PubMed 38912654
  7. SURPASS-2. N Engl J Med 2021;385(6):503-515. PubMed 34170647
  8. STEP 1. N Engl J Med 2021;384(11):989-1002. PubMed 33567185
  9. STEP 2. Lancet 2021;397(10278):971-984. PubMed 33667417
  10. STEP 3. JAMA 2021;325(14):1403-1413. PubMed 33625476
  11. STEP 4. JAMA 2021;325(14):1414-1425. PubMed 33755728
  12. STEP 5. Nat Med 2022;28(10):2083-2091. PubMed 36216945
  13. STEP 8. JAMA 2022;327(2):138-150. PubMed 35015037
  14. STEP-HFpEF. N Engl J Med 2023;389(12):1069-1084. PubMed 37622681
  15. SELECT. N Engl J Med 2023;389(24):2221-2232. PubMed 37952131
  16. FLOW. N Engl J Med 2024;391(2):109-121. PubMed 38785209
  17. SUSTAIN-6. N Engl J Med 2016;375(19):1834-1844. PubMed 27633186
  18. PIONEER 6. N Engl J Med 2019;381(9):841-851. PubMed 31185157
  19. Retatrutide phase 2 (obesity). N Engl J Med 2023;389(6):514-526. PubMed 37366315
  20. TRANSCEND-T2D-1 (retatrutide). Lancet 2026;407(10546):2402-2413. PubMed 42250575
  21. ATTAIN-1 (orforglipron). N Engl J Med 2025;393(18):1796-1806. PubMed 40960239
  22. ATTAIN-2 (orforglipron). Lancet 2025;406(10522):2927-2944. PubMed 41275875
  23. REDEFINE 1 (CagriSema). N Engl J Med 2025;393(7):635-647. PubMed 40544433
  24. REDEFINE 2 (CagriSema). N Engl J Med 2025;393(7):648-659. PubMed 40544432

Read before you use it

Guides for this calculator

Master comparison table: 24 pivotal GLP-1 and GIP/GLP-1 trials side by side

One table for every trial digested on this site: drug, population, size, duration, primary endpoint, result with confidence interval, estimand, funding and PubMed id. Plus the interactive explorer.

Updated September 4, 2026

Educational, not medical advice. Read the medical disclaimer.