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24 of 24 trials match.
SURMOUNT-1
- Indication
- Weight management
- Randomised
- 2,539
- Duration
- 72 weeks
- Primary endpoint
- Coprimary: percent change in body weight from baseline, and weight reduction of 5 percent or more, at week 72.
- Result
- Mean percent weight change at week 72: -15.0% (95% CI -15.9 to -14.2) with 5 mg, -19.5% (-20.4 to -18.5) with 10 mg, -20.9% (-21.8 to -19.9) with 15 mg, versus -3.1% (-4.3 to -1.9) with placebo; P<0.001 for all comparisons.
- Estimand
- treatment-regimen
| Arm | n | Weight change | Minus placebo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tirzepatide 5 mg | n/s | -15.0%95% CI -15.9 to -14.2 | -11.9 pts |
| Tirzepatide 10 mg | n/s | -19.5%95% CI -20.4 to -18.5 | -16.4 pts |
| Tirzepatide 15 mg | n/s | -20.9%95% CI -21.8 to -19.9 | -17.8 pts |
| Placebo | n/s | -3.1%95% CI -4.3 to -1.9 | n/a |
n/s = not stated in the abstract. Minus placebo is arithmetic on the arm means, not the paper's modelled treatment difference.
Source. N Engl J Med 2022;387(3):205-216. Published 2022-07-21 (online 2022-06-04). Funding: Eli Lilly. PubMed 35658024. Full digest: SURMOUNT-1.
This is the whole site on one page. Each row links to a digest that explains the number, and the explorer above lets you filter and chart the arms. Two rules for reading it: rows are not directly comparable unless the trial was head-to-head, and a blank means the abstract did not state the figure.
Weight-management trials, no diabetes
Primary endpoint: percent change in body weight. Estimand as named in the abstract. TP = treatment-policy, TR = treatment-regimen, ITT = intention to treat, n/s = not stated in abstract.
| Trial | Arms | N | Weeks | Weight change | Difference (95% CI) | Estimand | PubMed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STEP 1 | Semaglutide 2.4 mg vs placebo | 1961 | 68 | -14.9% vs -2.4% | -12.4 (-13.4 to -11.5) | TP | 33567185 |
| STEP 3 | Semaglutide 2.4 mg + IBT vs placebo + IBT | 611 | 68 | -16.0% vs -5.7% | -10.3 (-12.0 to -8.6) | n/s | 33625476 |
| STEP 5 | Semaglutide 2.4 mg vs placebo | 304 | 104 | -15.2% vs -2.6% | -12.6 (-15.3 to -9.8) | TP | 36216945 |
| STEP 8 | Semaglutide 2.4 mg vs liraglutide 3.0 mg (pooled placebo) | 338 | 68 | -15.8% vs -6.4% (placebo -1.9%) | -9.4 (-12.0 to -6.8) | n/s | 35015037 |
| SURMOUNT-1 | Tirzepatide 5 / 10 / 15 mg vs placebo | 2539 | 72 | -15.0% / -19.5% / -20.9% vs -3.1% | Arm CIs: -15.9 to -14.2; -20.4 to -18.5; -21.8 to -19.9 | TR | 35658024 |
| SURMOUNT-3 | Tirzepatide MTD vs placebo, after 12-wk lifestyle lead-in | 579 | 72 | -18.4% vs +2.5% (from randomisation) | -20.8 (-23.2 to -18.5) | TR | 37840095 |
| SURMOUNT-5 | Tirzepatide MTD vs semaglutide MTD (open-label) | 751 | 72 | -20.2% vs -13.7% | Arm CIs: -21.4 to -19.1; -14.9 to -12.6 | n/s | 40353578 |
| ATTAIN-1 | Orforglipron 6 / 12 / 36 mg daily vs placebo | 3127 | 72 | -7.5% / -8.4% / -11.2% vs -2.1% | Arm CIs: -8.2 to -6.8; -9.1 to -7.7; -12.0 to -10.4 | TR | 40960239 |
| REDEFINE 1 | CagriSema 2.4/2.4 mg vs placebo (+ monotherapy arms) | 3417 | 68 | -20.4% vs -3.0% | -17.3 (-18.1 to -16.6) | TP | 40544433 |
| Retatrutide phase 2 | Retatrutide 1 / 4 / 8 / 12 mg vs placebo | 338 | 48 | -8.7% / -17.1% / -22.8% / -24.2% vs -2.1% (wk 48) | Not given in abstract | n/s | 37366315 |
Withdrawal trials
Change is measured from randomisation, after a run-in on the drug, not from a drug-naive baseline.
| Trial | Run-in | N randomised | Weeks after randomisation | Continued vs switched to placebo | Difference (95% CI) | PubMed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STEP 4 | 20 wk semaglutide, -10.6% | 803 | 48 | -7.9% vs +6.9% | -14.8 (-16.0 to -13.5) | 33755728 |
| SURMOUNT-4 | 36 wk tirzepatide, -20.9% | 670 | 52 | -5.5% vs +14.0% | -19.4 (-21.2 to -17.7) | 38078870 |
Weight-management trials, type 2 diabetes
Entry required BMI 27 or higher and HbA1c 7 to 10 percent. Primary endpoint: percent change in body weight.
| Trial | Arms | N | Weeks | Weight change | Difference (95% CI) | Estimand | PubMed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STEP 2 | Semaglutide 2.4 mg / 1.0 mg vs placebo | 1210 | 68 | -9.6% (2.4 mg) vs -3.4%; 1.0 mg n/s | -6.2 (-7.3 to -5.2) | ITT | 33667417 |
| SURMOUNT-2 | Tirzepatide 10 / 15 mg vs placebo | 938 | 72 | -12.8% / -14.7% vs -3.2% | -9.6 (-11.1 to -8.1); -11.6 (-13.0 to -10.1) | TR | 37385275 |
| ATTAIN-2 | Orforglipron 6 / 12 / 36 mg daily vs placebo | 1613 | 72 | -5.1% / -7.0% / -9.6% vs -2.5% | -2.7 (-3.7 to -1.6); -4.5 (-5.5 to -3.6); -7.1 (-8.2 to -6.1) | TR | 41275875 |
| REDEFINE 2 | CagriSema 2.4/2.4 mg vs placebo | 1206 | 68 | -13.7% vs -3.4% | -10.4 (-11.2 to -9.5) | TP | 40544432 |
Diabetes, cardiovascular, kidney and other endpoints
Primary endpoint is not percent weight change. Weight, where the abstract gives it, is in the digest.
| Trial | Population | Arms | N | Duration | Primary endpoint | Result (95% CI) | PubMed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SURPASS-2 | Type 2 diabetes | Tirzepatide 5 / 10 / 15 mg vs semaglutide 1 mg | 1879 | 40 wk | HbA1c change | -2.01 / -2.24 / -2.30 vs -1.86 points; differences -0.15 (-0.28 to -0.03), -0.39 (-0.51 to -0.26), -0.45 (-0.57 to -0.32) | 34170647 |
| TRANSCEND-T2D-1 | Early type 2 diabetes, diet and exercise only | Retatrutide 4 / 9 / 12 mg vs placebo | 537 | 40 wk | HbA1c change | -1.69 / -1.86 / -1.94 vs -0.81 points; differences -0.88 (-1.18 to -0.59), -1.04 (-1.32 to -0.76), -1.12 (-1.39 to -0.85). Weight (secondary): -11.5 / -13.9 / -15.3 vs -2.6% | 42250575 |
| SUSTAIN-6 | Type 2 diabetes, high CV risk | Semaglutide 0.5 / 1.0 mg vs placebo | 3297 | 104 wk | CV death, nonfatal MI or stroke | 6.6% vs 8.9%; HR 0.74 (0.58 to 0.95); noninferiority P less than 0.001 | 27633186 |
| PIONEER 6 | Type 2 diabetes, high CV risk | Oral semaglutide daily vs placebo | 3183 | Median 15.9 mo | MACE | 3.8% vs 4.8%; HR 0.79 (0.57 to 1.11); noninferior, not superior | 31185157 |
| SELECT | Established CVD, BMI 27+, no diabetes | Semaglutide 2.4 mg vs placebo | 17604 | Mean 39.8 mo | CV death, nonfatal MI or stroke | 6.5% vs 8.0%; HR 0.80 (0.72 to 0.90) | 37952131 |
| FLOW | Type 2 diabetes with CKD | Semaglutide 1.0 mg vs placebo | 3533 | Median 3.4 yr | Major kidney disease events | 331 vs 410 events; HR 0.76 (0.66 to 0.88) | 38785209 |
| SURMOUNT-OSA | Moderate-to-severe OSA with obesity | Tirzepatide MTD vs placebo, two trials | 467 dosed | 52 wk | AHI change (events/h) | Trial 1: -25.3 vs -5.3, difference -20.0 (-25.8 to -14.2). Trial 2: -29.3 vs -5.5, difference -23.8 (-29.6 to -17.9) | 38912654 |
| STEP-HFpEF | HFpEF with BMI 30+ | Semaglutide 2.4 mg vs placebo | 529 | 52 wk | KCCQ-CSS and weight | +16.6 vs +8.7 points (7.8; 4.8 to 10.9); -13.3% vs -2.6% (-10.7; -11.9 to -9.4) | 37622681 |
Funding
Every trial in the tables above was funded by the drug's manufacturer where the abstract names a funder: Novo Nordisk for the semaglutide, oral semaglutide and CagriSema trials; Eli Lilly for the tirzepatide, retatrutide and orforglipron trials. Four JAMA abstracts (STEP 3, STEP 4, STEP 8, SURMOUNT-4) do not name a funder in the abstract; their registry records are linked from each digest. Industry funding is the norm for pivotal trials and is not by itself a reason to discount a result. It is a reason to read the estimand, the comparator and the discontinuation numbers with care.
Discontinuation for adverse events, where the abstract states it
Percent discontinuing treatment because of adverse events, drug versus placebo (or comparator), as stated in the abstract or, where marked, the PMC full text.
| Trial | Drug arm(s) | Control | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| STEP 1 | 4.5% (GI events) | 0.8% | GI-related only |
| STEP 3 | 3.4% (GI events) | 0% | GI-related only |
| STEP 4 | 2.4% | 2.2% | After randomisation; run-in already selected tolerant participants |
| STEP 5 | 5.9% | 4.6% | PMC full text |
| STEP 8 | 13.5% (semaglutide, any reason) | 27.6% (liraglutide, any reason) | All-cause, not AE-specific |
| SURMOUNT-1 | 4.3% / 7.1% / 6.2% | 2.6% | 5 / 10 / 15 mg |
| SURMOUNT-2 | under 5% | n/s | |
| SURMOUNT-3 | 10.5% | 2.1% | PMC full text |
| SURMOUNT-OSA | 4.4% / 3.4% | 1.7% / 7.0% | Trial 1 / trial 2, PMC author manuscript |
| SELECT | 16.6% | 8.2% | Permanent discontinuation, mean 34 months exposure |
| ATTAIN-1 | 5.3% to 10.3% | 2.7% | |
| ATTAIN-2 | 6.1% to 9.9% | 4.1% | |
| TRANSCEND-T2D-1 | 2% to 5% | 0% |
Trials absent from this table (STEP 2, STEP-HFpEF, SURMOUNT-4, SURMOUNT-5, SURPASS-2, SUSTAIN-6, PIONEER 6, FLOW, REDEFINE 1, REDEFINE 2, retatrutide phase 2) do not give an adverse-event discontinuation percentage in their abstracts. Each digest says what the abstract does report instead.
How to use this page
Start from the question, not the drug. If the question is "how much weight, on average, for someone like me", find the row for your population and read the placebo-subtracted difference with its interval. If the question is "does this drug prevent heart attacks", the answer lives only in the SELECT, SUSTAIN-6 and PIONEER 6 rows, and only for those populations. If the question is "which drug is better", only SURMOUNT-5, STEP 8 and SURPASS-2 answer it directly. The how to read a GLP-1 trial guide explains each column; the calculator site applies the STEP 1 and SURMOUNT-1 arm averages to a body weight; and FormBlends' cost report covers what these drugs cost, which no trial does.
Sources
- All primary publications are listed with PubMed ids on each digest and in the table below; every figure was read from the PubMed abstract (NCBI E-utilities, 4 September 2026) or, where the digest says so, the PMC full text. Accessed September 4, 2026.
- Trial result explorer data set (this site), checked 2026-09-04 Accessed September 4, 2026.
Canonical URL: https://formblendsresearch.com/methods/pivotal-trial-comparison-table. Written by the FormBlends editorial team. This page is educational and is not medical advice; see the medical disclaimer.